Ag Concerns heading into 2025

The United States is days away from a new president taking the helm, a president that 62% of rural voters voted for according to AP VoteCast.  Donald Trump stepping into the Oval Office is a relief to many in contrast to his competition.  But at the same time, producers across the country have some serious concerns with regard to the appointments, policies, regulations, and the like that will be established over the next four years.  Between his previous term and his campaign comments, Trump is not looking to do any favors for the agriculture industry. 

While there are so many unknowns, there are some key issues the ag industry will be keeping their eye on as they anticipate the rippling effects of the new administration.  Every part of the ag industry that plays a role in taking food from the farm to the dinner table has felt the economic hard times of late.  Rising input costs with uncertain markets has meant that everyone is watching their bottom dollar.  New tax policies, environmental regulations, and foreign trade might seem to be a far off concern from the everyday ranch business but eventually every business and operation will be impacted by the governing body of the
United States.

High on the list of items to tackle is the issue of border and immigration control.  With an increasing number of migrant workers filling the need of farm hand positions, this matter is of high importance to producers.  Trump has clearly indicated that he would establish a far more aggressive immigration policy that would include strengthening border patrol and enforcing mass deportations.  

Trump has gone so far as to claim his plan to eliminate the H-2A program, a program that plays a vital role in providing a rural workforce.  Reducing migrant workers may seem like an opportunity for more American workers to take up the slack but that would come as a heavy cost for producers.  Truthfully, there are no available skilled workers to replace the current workforce and the most likely fallout would be for producers to use less labor and turn to more automated technology to get the work done.

Climate control continues to be a dominating issue for policy makers and, in one way or another, will be a major issue for this administration as well.  When Trump took over from the Obama administration, he immediately reversed a number of environmental policies and regulations in the very first weeks after taking office.  Reducing regulations like Trump has already stated could bring some relief,  but his intention to completely remove programs for sustainable food or climate-smart practices could hurt those operations already heavily invested.

On the flip side, Trump has hopes to propose alternative solutions that will protect air and water while also promoting energy independence and economic growth.  More affordable fuel and energy sources with less regulatory pressures may be the difference of staying afloat for many operations.

The debate over foreign trade and tariffs is already hitting many crop producers square in the face and what they are seeing is lending to a squeamish feeling deep in their gut.  Trump has admitted that he will go back to already established trade agreements with China, laying down tariffs that could strongly hamper crop markets such as soybean and corn.  The trade wars of 2018 and 2019 are still fresh in the minds of many farmers that were affected by the drop in US exports and fear history repeating itself on Trump’s path to more fair trade agreements.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is set to expire in 2026 and tax reform will be on the table for heavy discussion.  Any conversation involving estate and capital gains taxes could have large repercussions for landowners in the agriculture industry.  Trump and the republican party generally advocate for extending the tax cuts from the 2017 bill as they have significantly contributed to economic growth, job creation, and relief for middle-class families and businesses, including the American family farm.

In addition to Trump’s own intentions to redirect the affairs of the United States and the agriculture industry, his cabinet appointments and their own agendas will clearly influence the immediate future of farming and ranching operations.

Brooke Rollins, newly appointed Secretary of Agriculture has said little about what the future of ag will look like under her command, only that “It will be the honor of my life to fight for America’s farmers and our nation’s agricultural communities.”  Rollins comes from a farming background in Texas, graduating from Texas A&M in agricultural development before receiving her law degree from the University of Texas.  With little known of how she will handle affairs involving agriculture, her background in ag is at least a step in the right direction.

Appointed Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F Kennedy Jr is also likely to have a large influence on farming and ranching practices.  Declaring war on any and all practices that may be responsible for the epidemic of chronic disease,  RFK is looking to take on “modern agriculture” with an overwhelming “agricultural reformation.”  His anti-pesticide views with his animal activist rhetoric is a concerning preamble to his term leading the U.S. Food and Drug
Administration.

Fortunately, despite the unknowns of the new administration taking over the country, there is one thing we know- US farmers and ranchers across the country are forever dedicated to the cause of raising the best products in the best way.  It may be an uphill battle, but they are always ready to defend their way of life and their right to do it, for themselves and their country.