Ag Issues in the Election

By the time you read this, the 2024 election will be over and despite some post-election squabbling that is bound to happen, the direction of policy and regulation for the next several will be largely known.  The details and specifics will only come in real time but with a new president and congress elected, a trajectory will be officially plotted.

The agriculture industry will be highly impacted by the decision of the November 5 vote.  Regardless of what the polls are currently saying, it really is unknown how things might shake out.  Will there finally be a supermajority in Congress or will both the House of Representatives and Senate change control?  Will Trump lead with his proclaimed high tariffs or will Harris with her highly regulated climate control policies take over?

While there are so many unknowns, there are some key issues the ag industry is keeping their eye on as they anticipate the rippling effects of the nationwide electoral decision.  Every part of the ag industry that plays a role in taking food from the farm to the dinner table has felt the economic hard times of late.  Rising input costs with uncertain markets has meant that everyone is watching their bottom dollar.  New tax policies, environmental regulations, and foreign trade might seem to be a far off concern from the everyday ranch business but eventually every business and operation will be impacted by the governing body of the United States.

High on the list of presidential debate issues is the concern of border and immigration control.  With an increasing number of migrant workers filling the need of farm hand positions, this matter is being closely followed by producers.  Trump has clearly indicated that he would establish a far more aggressive immigration policy that would include strengthening border patrol and enforcing mass deportations.  More stringent regulations may very well affect the crucial H2A immigrant worker program, intensifying the ongoing labor shortage, although he has commented that they “will prioritize merit-based immigration, ensuring those admitted to our country contribute to our economy and strengthen our country.” 

Harris is committed to balancing security with humanitarian considerations, protecting undocumented immigrants already in the US while promoting immigration reform.  While this might keep the pool of a potential workforce large, finding legal laborers to hire might be harder than ever.

Climate control continues to be a dominating issue for policy makers and is at the forefront of the presidential debate.  Under the Biden administration, Harris heavily supported the Green New Deal and the Inflation Reduction Act that has clearly demonstrated her commitment to aggressive environmental standards. She alongside the democratic party are pushing towards a net-zero agricultural emissions by 2050.  Her leadership would be sure to include further incentives and programs to regulate environmental agricultural practices.  While producers are all about sustainability, doing so under the strict thumb of an over-regulating government is far from the collaboration they hope to find on such an important issue.

On the other hand, Trump has already stated how he would work to roll back a number of the current administration’s climate policies if he were to be elected.  In turn, he hopes to propose alternative solutions that will protect air and water while also promoting energy independence and economic growth.  More affordable fuel and energy sources with less regulatory pressures may be the difference of staying afloat for many operations.

The debate over foreign trade and tariffs are hitting many crop producers square in the face and what they are seeing is lending to a squeamish feeling deep in their gut.  Trump has  already established that he will go back to already established trade agreements with China, laying down tariffs that could strongly hamper crops such as soybean and corn.  The trade wars of 2018 and 2019 are still fresh in the minds of many farmers that were affected by the drop in US exports and fear history repeating itself on Trump’s path to more fair trade agreements.

Harris is unlikely to make any changes to the current administration’s trade policy that focuses on diversifying trade partners and easing international tensions. These evolving trade partnerships may in turn lead to inconsistent or unstable export opportunities.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 is set to expire in 2026 and tax reform will be on the table for heavy discussion.  Any conversation involving estate and capital gains taxes could have large repercussions for landowners in the agriculture industry.  Trump and the republican party generally advocate for extending the tax cuts from the 2017 bill as they have significantly contributed to economic growth, job creation, and relief for middle-class families and businesses, including the American family farm.

There is little from the earlier tax act that Harris and the democratic party don’t agree with, however, there is one key tax reform under consideration that would remove the stepped-up basis for gains greater than $5 million.  Such a change might not affect large numbers of family operations but there is still the concern that such a reform would create an overwhelming tax burden for some family farms.

With an additional extension to the current Farm Bill, the upcoming congress and administration will be making significant decisions concerning US food and agriculture for the upcoming years.  Current financial pressures and relief needs following the devastating hurricanes on the east coast may be enough to force a new bill by the lame duck congress following the election but it’s anyone’s guess how things would go moving forward.  Regardless, how the Farm Bill is established and carried out will be all under the governance of the newly elected congress. 

A number of the swing states in the 2024 votes, including Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina have large economies that rely heavily on agriculture.  The vote of rural America, the producers of the very basic needs of every citizen, may very well be the deciding voice of the next governing administration.  With such heavy issues on the forefront, the agriculture industry is sure to be on the edge of their seat to see just what the next four years might look like.